Monday, July 19, 2010

Market wedge as seen in Russell 2000 implied volatility...

The target for the end of the 'E' wave, I belatedly now realize, are almost where we are now!

Based on Fibonacci calculations, you get 40.701, which is right at the current Bollinger Bands!

So Monday I'll have my finger over the 'SELL' button!


Anonymous said...

hey Mark,
remained short $SPX via SDS on Friday. As of 4:00pm Friday, my charts marked ~1077.5 as a decision point on the 10min.

Therefore, any Monday pop to this level on weak, whatever used, intraday internals maintains confidence in the short position.

Failure to reach even the 1077.5 with coressponding weak internals would mean (to me) anyone not short might want to get short as in "the first to panic wins." My hourly version is indicating lower price points will occur.

As of 9:04am Monday, the market is looking pretty lame.

OT: have you found anything more on oil well pressure? Seems to me, the well should have reached max pressure RAPIDLY and held there if it had integrity. The "slowly rising" pressure some hours into the test indicated to me there must be a "slow leak" somewhere.


mlytle said...

Hi Anonymous,
Yes, the put/call ratios this morning are bearing out what you've said, and the markets are falling this morning. I became concerned last night while trying to clarify the wedge that's building on the indexes as I documented yesterday afternoon. Though I'm not a 'religious' Elliot Waver, I was trying to figure out what the wave structure of this thing was, but the counts where muddy. I then started looking at the implied volatility charts for the major indexes, and the RVX seemed to have a crystal clear structure implying a near term completion in the wave count at around 40.70 or so by Fibonacci...
The bands this morning on the RVX are quite tight implying a large move, and favorable to shorts, but as that index moves towards the mid-forties, which is also the level of the daily (as opposed to hourly) bands, I will get real cautious, or even sell my short positions, haven't decided yet..

I saw late last night that a leak had been discovered somewhere near the well, confirming the pressure profile you mention. They need to get those relief wells completed asap, in my opinion...still a very dicey proposition out there..

mlytle said...

Just a typo in my previous note:

I meant to say as RVX gets close to the mid 40-ish level rather than the mid forties...near 40.5 to 40.7...