Thursday, July 1, 2010

Did the market bottom early, I mean today?

It's possible...
Take a look at fast Stochastics on this chart of the $VIX. As $VIX hit the upper bands, it produced a 'topping' candlestick, even as Stochastics broke down. That is what a bottom might look like from the standpoint of the $VIX. The index charts all sport what look like bottoming candlesticks. That's not proof of anything, but it gets your attention...


Now look at these up to date, end of day exponential trendline charts of the $SPX and $RUT, large scale:



The Russell 2000 chart is very near it's first critical trendline, and the $SPX is resting on a trendline (light green) that I have considered of lesser importance. But is it? I will wait for the sentiment chart to come out later on Sentimentrader.com and see what it says. I know that both of the indexes I have been tracking here were below their small channels today and went parabolic (down) intraday. If you read one of Martin Pring's books on TA, that is also a technical sign of a bottom...

Depending somewhat on what the sentiment read is, I may liquidate my short positions early tomorrow as I have a good gain built up on this down move, and see no reason to quibble over a couple of more percent...

Update: Sentimentrader site seems to be down tonight, but I came up with this:



Spikes in this ratio sometimes corresponds to price extremes or sometimes they happen after a few days...

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